Coral Reef Diagnostics

Chagos Archipelago - Victory Bank / Great Chagos Bank North

Khaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation — Global Reef Expedition

Regional summary of 8 dive sites. Figures are averages across the sites that report them (n = sites with a value); each site's own page has its individual values. Part of the Chagos Archipelago overview.

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05
Photo: Anderson Mayfield/Coral Reef Diagnostics — Chagos Archipelago - Victory Bank (BIVB108)
Country
Chagos Archipelago
Sites
8
each linked below
Hard coral cover (regional mean)
43% ± 11% (std. dev.)
n=8. range 22–60%
Water temp. during surveys (regional mean)
29.8°C
n = 8 of 8 sites; surveyed Apr 2015; all are station CTD-cast midpoints, not dive readings
Coral Health Index (regional mean)
not yet scored
n = 0 of 8 sites
Coral bleached (regional mean)
9.1%
n = 7 of 8 sites, published % bleached (Mayfield & Dempsey 2026)
Most recent water temperature record
26 Oct 2026 · Chagos Archipelago, UK
Most recent heat stress record
26 Oct 2026 · Bleaching Warning
Mean annual max degree heating weeks (DHW), last 5 years
2021–2025 · Chagos Archipelago, UK
Highest annual heat stress
in 2016 · Chagos Archipelago, UK
Severe heat-stress years
1985–2025 · 2 in the last 10 years
Heat-stress figures: NOAA Coral Reef Watch — Chagos Archipelago, UK 5-km virtual station. Each pill links its source record and carries the values behind it.
Regional summary

Sheltered lagoon and bank reefs on the northern Great Chagos Bank and isolated Victory Bank, dived in April 2015, include one site that is more than four-fifths blue coral and records of the endemic Ctenella chagius. An active crown-of-thorns outbreak was photographed at one northern-bank site.

Heat stress

04812Week of 2023-04-02: DHW 0.5°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.96°CWeek of 2023-04-09: DHW 1.8°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.32°CWeek of 2023-04-16: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.08°CWeek of 2023-04-23: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.59°CWeek of 2023-04-30: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.37°CWeek of 2023-05-07: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.33°CWeek of 2023-05-14: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.10°CWeek of 2023-05-21: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.13°CWeek of 2023-05-28: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.06°CWeek of 2023-06-04: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.13°CWeek of 2023-06-11: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.85°CWeek of 2023-06-18: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.41°CWeek of 2023-06-25: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.37°CWeek of 2023-07-02: DHW 2.0°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.42°CWeek of 2023-07-09: DHW 0.6°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.67°CWeek of 2024-02-04: DHW 0.2°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.77°CWeek of 2024-02-11: DHW 0.5°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.85°CWeek of 2024-02-18: DHW 1.2°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.10°CWeek of 2024-02-25: DHW 2.0°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.03°CWeek of 2024-03-03: DHW 3.2°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.25°CWeek of 2024-03-10: DHW 4.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.15°CWeek of 2024-03-17: DHW 5.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.11°CWeek of 2024-03-24: DHW 6.6°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.43°CWeek of 2024-03-31: DHW 8.0°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.34°CWeek of 2024-04-07: DHW 9.1°C-weeks (Alert Level 2+: severe bleaching and significant mortality likely); SST 30.13°CWeek of 2024-04-14: DHW 10.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 2+: severe bleaching and significant mortality likely); SST 30.10°CWeek of 2024-04-21: DHW 10.4°C-weeks (Alert Level 2+: severe bleaching and significant mortality likely); SST 29.73°CWeek of 2024-04-28: DHW 10.4°C-weeks (Alert Level 2+: severe bleaching and significant mortality likely); SST 29.71°CWeek of 2024-05-05: DHW 10.5°C-weeks (Alert Level 2+: severe bleaching and significant mortality likely); SST 29.85°CWeek of 2024-05-12: DHW 10.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 2+: severe bleaching and significant mortality likely); SST 29.70°CWeek of 2024-05-19: DHW 9.3°C-weeks (Alert Level 2+: severe bleaching and significant mortality likely); SST 29.06°CWeek of 2024-05-26: DHW 8.6°C-weeks (Alert Level 2+: severe bleaching and significant mortality likely); SST 28.95°CWeek of 2024-06-02: DHW 7.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.18°CWeek of 2024-06-09: DHW 6.5°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.32°CWeek of 2024-06-16: DHW 5.4°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.11°CWeek of 2024-06-23: DHW 3.9°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.06°CWeek of 2024-06-30: DHW 2.5°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.38°CWeek of 2024-07-07: DHW 1.4°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.24°CWeek of 2024-07-14: DHW 0.3°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.18°CWeek of 2024-07-21: DHW 0.3°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.01°CWeek of 2024-07-28: DHW 0.2°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.70°CWeek of 2025-03-30: DHW 1.2°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.13°CWeek of 2025-04-06: DHW 2.3°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.15°CWeek of 2025-04-13: DHW 3.4°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.11°CWeek of 2025-04-20: DHW 4.6°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.20°CWeek of 2025-04-27: DHW 5.8°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.14°CWeek of 2025-05-04: DHW 6.1°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.93°CWeek of 2025-05-11: DHW 6.1°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.80°CWeek of 2025-05-18: DHW 6.9°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.11°CWeek of 2025-05-25: DHW 7.5°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.05°CWeek of 2025-06-01: DHW 7.5°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.58°CWeek of 2025-06-08: DHW 7.5°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.12°CWeek of 2025-06-15: DHW 7.5°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.01°CWeek of 2025-06-22: DHW 7.4°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 28.87°CWeek of 2025-06-29: DHW 6.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.07°CWeek of 2025-07-06: DHW 5.0°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 28.81°CWeek of 2025-07-13: DHW 3.9°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.71°CWeek of 2025-07-20: DHW 2.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.75°CWeek of 2025-07-27: DHW 1.6°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.57°CWeek of 2025-08-03: DHW 1.4°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.53°CWeek of 2025-08-10: DHW 1.3°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.61°CWeek of 2025-08-17: DHW 0.5°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.59°CWeek of 2026-03-15: DHW 0.5°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.87°CWeek of 2026-03-22: DHW 1.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.20°CWeek of 2026-03-29: DHW 2.2°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.93°CWeek of 2026-04-05: DHW 2.3°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 29.87°CWeek of 2026-04-12: DHW 3.4°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 30.15°CWeek of 2026-04-19: DHW 4.7°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.30°CWeek of 2026-04-26: DHW 6.1°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.40°CWeek of 2026-05-03: DHW 7.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 30.24°CWeek of 2026-05-10: DHW 7.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.65°CWeek of 2026-05-17: DHW 7.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.46°CWeek of 2026-05-24: DHW 7.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 29.59°CWeek of 2026-05-31: DHW 7.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 28.98°CWeek of 2026-06-07: DHW 7.2°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 28.98°CWeek of 2026-06-14: DHW 6.6°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 28.91°CWeek of 2026-06-21: DHW 5.4°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 28.96°CWeek of 2026-06-28: DHW 5.1°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 28.94°CWeek of 2026-07-05: DHW 4.8°C-weeks (Alert Level 1: significant bleaching likely); SST 28.93°CWeek of 2026-07-12: DHW 3.7°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.74°CWeek of 2026-07-19: DHW 2.4°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.48°CWeek of 2026-07-26: DHW 0.9°C-weeks (below the bleaching alert threshold); SST 28.52°C272829303132Bleaching threshold 30.0°C2023202420252026SST (°C)DHW (°C-weeks)
sea surface temperature (SST) (left axis)DHW under 2DHW 2–3DHW 3–5DHW 5–8DHW 8–10DHW over 10 (🔥 above 12)
Daily SST (line) and weekly maximum Degree Heating Weeks (bars), Jan 2023–Oct 2026, NOAA Coral Reef Watch 5-km Chagos Archipelago, UK virtual station. Dashed line: bleaching threshold (maximum monthly mean 29.0°C + 1°C). DHW ≥ 4: bleaching likely; ≥ 8: severe bleaching and mortality likely. A bar is drawn only where DHW exceeds zero, so a stretch with no bar is accumulated heat stress of zero, not missing data — the SST line runs the full period.

Long-term record: 3 years from 1985 through 2025 reached 8 or more °C-weeks at NOAA’s Chagos Archipelago, UK station. Download the annual DHW data (CSV).

8 sites in this region — click a marker to open that site.

Regional setting

Most of this unit lies on the Great Chagos Bank, which Spalding et al. (2001) describe as a largely submerged atoll and, at roughly 13,000 km², the world's largest atoll structure, bigger in area than even the largest Maldivian atolls. Only a few islands break the surface along its rim. Nelson Island, on the northern rim, became a Strict Nature Reserve in 1998, and the atlas map shows Victory Bank as a small, separate bank lying north of the Great Chagos Bank. The archipelago formed over the volcanic trace of the Réunion hotspot and is the youngest, southernmost part of the Chagos–Laccadive Ridge, isolated from the Maldives by about 500 km of open ocean. Before 1998, corals typically covered 50–80% of seaward and lagoon slopes to about 40 m. No one measured bleaching intensity in 1998, but coral loss on seaward reefs is estimated to have averaged 80–85% and was close to 100% in some areas. As of 2001, the authors still counted the Chagos reefs among the most pristine and best protected in the Indian Ocean. Spalding et al. (2001) estimate about 3,770 km² of reef across the archipelago as a whole, and Souter et al. (2021) give 2,731 km² for the Chagos ecoregion from a newer map.

In the GCRMN analysis of Souter et al. (2021), coral cover in the Chagos subregion fell sharply after 1998, rebuilt until about 2015, and then declined again after the 2016 bleaching. Across South Asia, the 2016 event killed more than 42% of living hard coral, cutting average cover to 26%, and localized bleaching from 2017 to 2019 added further losses. Atoll reefs on the Lakshadweep–Maldives–Chagos Ridge have generally recovered better than nearshore mainland reefs, which carry heavier fishing and pollution, but the authors caution that back-to-back disturbances may now outpace recovery, so reefs never fully return to their earlier state before the next event. They name bleaching, rather than local human pressure, as the primary threat to the protected Chagos atolls.

Overview

This unit pairs reefs inside the Nelson Island lagoon on the northern Great Chagos Bank, plus a fourth northern-bank site at BINI80, with the isolated offshore Victory Bank. The eight sites were surveyed between 20 and 30 April 2015. Logged maximum depths ran from 16.4 m at BIVB109 to 31.2 m at BIVB99, with BINI79 and BIVB81 close behind at 30.9 m and 31.1 m; BINI80's logged maximum was 30.4 m, with transects at about 10-20 m. All eight are lagoonal patch reefs or submerged bank and rim reefs, including BIVB109, a submerged bank reef on isolated Victory Bank. Acropora leads at most sites, often giving way to Porites at depth, as at BINI77. BIVB99 is the exception: blue coral (Heliopora) makes up more than four-fifths of the coral there, in dense thickets of upright folded blades. At BIVB109, fire coral (Millepora) leads the coral at over a third, ahead of Acropora and Porites. The Chagos-endemic Ctenella chagius was recorded at BINI77, BIVB108, and BIVB109.

Cover ranged from 22% at BINI78, where non-coral invertebrates cover 23% of the benthos, more than the live coral, to 60% at BIVB99. The substrate varied from clean, coralline-crusted rock at BINI77 to silty turf and macroalgae at BIVB81 (30% sediment-laden turf and 13% macroalgae). Photos at BIVB81 also show a near-continuous stand of whorled plate coral that the transects did not record.

Published bleaching ran from 5.0% at BINI79 to 16% at BINI77, where stark white tables and branching colonies stood beside table framework that appears to be standing dead. At BIVB108 at least five of 15 frames show chalk-white tables beside pigmented neighbors, suggesting its 11% figure is conservative. At BINI78 published bleaching was 12%, and several colonies in the photographs are bleached white, including a dome bleached over most of its surface; a pale blue-gray encrusting sponge there also mimics bleached coral. Anderson's sampling sheet records one of the four colonies sampled there as 15% bleached and two as very pale. At BINI80, an active crown-of-thorns outbreak was photographed: at least eleven starfish in five frames, including about three on freshly killed white skeleton. The expedition's field report counted 194 crown-of-thorns starfish within a 10 × 50 m area on this reef and found about 30% of the tables with recent crown-of-thorns feeding, 10% dead, and 10% with white syndrome (Bruckner 2015, British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) Field Report, p. 15). Anderson's sampling sheet records seven of the eight pocilloporid colonies sampled there as 20% to more than 90% bleached. A whitetip reef shark and a dogtooth tuna were seen at BINI79, nurse sharks were photographed several times at BIVB109, and one large shark with the shape of a nurse shark rested among the tables on the first BINI80 dive.

Highlights

Notable observations

Sites in this region

% coral cover by method

Pooled across 8 dive sites

MethodMean % coral coverStd. dev. between dive sitesn dive sitesNote
Manual point count (author)38%*—11 of these 1 values rests on 10–19 photographs (*)
CoralNet automated point classifier26%±5.376 of these 7 values rest on 10–19 photographs (*)
CoralSCOP (SAM-based mask-sum), edited photos27%±6.075 of these 7 values rest on 10–19 photographs (*)
Claude (Anthropic), blind point count26%±8.775 of these 7 values rest on 10–19 photographs (*)
In-house DINOv3 point classifier29%±6.775 of these 7 values rest on 10–19 photographs (*)
In-water diver transect (line/point intercept)43%±118—

The mean is an UNWEIGHTED mean of the dive site values — each dive site counts once, whatever its photo count — which is the convention of the published tables and of every other figure on this page. Each value is the one printed on that dive site's own page; a page that prints no value for a method (fewer than 10 photographs) is left out of that method's mean.

This table pools only the 8 dive sites in this unit that have a method comparison; the table for all 101 dive sites is on the Chagos Archipelago page.

Closest to the reference

Over the dive sites where an independent reference exists, Manual point count (author) sits closest to it — a mean absolute deviation of 11.0 pp across 1 dive site, then CoralNet automated point classifier 17.9 pp (n=7), Claude (Anthropic), blind point count 18.3 pp (n=7). Not in this ranking: Coralscapes v1, Coralscapes v2, and CoralSCOP (edited), which measure coral area rather than points; DINOv3, which counts points over a different denominator. A mean absolute deviation is not an accuracy score: a model with a consistent offset is correctable, while one with the same deviation scattered in both directions is not.

By dive site

Dive siteManual point countCoralNetCoralSCOP (edited)ClaudeDINOv3Diver transectCoralscapes v1Coralscapes v2
BINI77—30%*
n=11
34%*
n=11
26%*
n=11
26%*
n=11
42%38%*
n=11
41%*
n=11
BINI78—24%*
n=16
28%*
n=16
25%*
n=16
29%*
n=16
22%27%*
n=16
29%*
n=16
BINI79—19%*
n=15
21%*
n=15
18%*
n=15
22%*
n=15
34%27%*
n=15
25%*
n=15
BINI8038%*
n=10
27%*
n=14
35%
n=24
29%
n=24
37%
n=24
49%42%
n=24
46%
n=24
BIVB108too few photos
n=1
25%*
n=10
28%*
n=11
12%*
n=11
24%*
n=11
47%23%*
n=10
18%*
n=11
BIVB109too few photos
n=1
35%
n=32
25%
n=33
35%
n=33
39%
n=33
48%67%
n=33
66%
n=33
BIVB81—too few photos
n=5
too few photos
n=5
too few photos
n=5
too few photos
n=5
43%too few photos
n=5
too few photos
n=5
BIVB99—21%*
n=11
19%*
n=11
35%*
n=11
25%*
n=11
60%64%*
n=11
63%*
n=11

n under each value is the number of photographs that method scored at that dive site. ⚠ marks a cell that is not an independent check. * marks a value resting on only 10–19 photographs, which is less certain.

Reference: IN-WATER DIVER TRANSECT, independent of the imagery (Mayfield & Dempsey 2026, Oceans 7:1). Denominator: line/point intercept along the transect; not a photo-point denominator. Source: the mean of all of each station's transects (Living Oceans Foundation per-transect benthic data); the published station values, which weight each depth equally, are in Mayfield & Dempsey 2026, Oceans 7:1, suppl. S1 (formal 38.7% cover / 30.5% bleaching, tourist-diver 35.1% / 31.8%) For all 104 dive sites in the comparison: ⚠ The reference here is NOT the same instrument as at Mauritius, Oman, Kenya, or the Red Sea. Those are point counts on the photographs; this is a diver swimming a transect. The models and the reference never saw the same thing. ⚠ SITE-LEVEL ONLY. The 2,500 frames were not associated with any transect taken within 200 m of them, so transect-vs-image comparisons are site means, never frames. The transect value is the mean of all of each station's own transects in the expedition's per-transect benthic data.

Nearby external survey stations

4 independent survey records within 5 km of a site in this region (each record counted once).

All images from Coral Reef Diagnostics. Data are from the Khaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation Global Reef Expedition, Coral Reef Diagnostics, and XL Catlin Seaview Survey (University of Queensland).

© Coral Reef Diagnostics.

References